tv Squawk Box CNBC September 9, 2013 6:00am-9:01am EDT
cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. president obama will be addressing the nation. about an hour ago secretary of state john kerry took questions from the media in a joint news conference with the u.k.'s foreign secretary. >> we're not talking about war. we're not going to war. we will not have people at risk in that way. we will be able to hold bashar assad accountable without engaging in troops on the ground or any other prolonged kind of effort in a very limited, very targeted, very short-term effort that degrades his capacity to deliver chemical weapons without assuming responsibility for syria's civil war. >> congress officially returns to work today to debate president obama's proposal for military action in syria. in an interview with pbs's
charlie rose, syrian's president bashar assad denied he had anything to do with the chemical weapons attack that happened. we'll talk to john harwood and politico's ben white. we also have some corporate news. nieman marcus in talks to be bought with the canadian pension investment board for more than $6 million. "the wall street journal" says they're trying to finalize a deal. the talks could fall apart. the company filed for an ipo in late june. some of the sources i've heard of and talked to, this deal will come. a number of folks have been flying around since the ipo was there. >> canada's pension fund is getting involved in a lot of different things. they've also been listed as a potential buyer of blackberry. >> this is true. >> it's odd to see a pension
fund involved. >> that is actually a whole other issue. you probably have some guesses on about this. now you're seeing a lot of pension funds decide, forget private equity per se. we're going to do it ourselves. forget the fees. forget all of the things that go along with that, we can do it ourselves. >> story on the front page of the wall street journal we'll talk about at the next break that talks about hedge funds and how some are pushing back on the hedge funds. >> it's a fee game. the question becomes in canada they actually pay the executives of the pension funds commensurate with what the people in the industry get paid. in the u.s., the cowpers it's not palatable to pay the ceos. what does it mean for the type of quality you can attract. >> the writing was on the wall for the hedge funds. >> when the stock market is done as well as it's done over the last couple of years, good luck
with -- >> exactly. measuring up the index funds and, you know, after it's all said and done your investors are getting half of what you get in a mutual fund because you're paying so much for fees. i was thinking about something else to talk about. oh, blackberry. that was right. yeah. no, i saw her tweeting some stuff about how it's sad. >> i saw what you guys were tweeting. >> it's sad that she's grasping at -- >> grasping at straws. >> the reason people still have -- >> two words are blackberry owners are doers. they're not interested in the latest apps. >> have you seen -- have you seen the new -- have you seen the new ibm selectric typewriters? it will go back. the ink will cover over mistakes that you made. >> white out right into the tape. >> yeah. the ibmselectric, have you tried one of those? >> i have a bottle of white out. i'm working on that.
>> are you closed. have you heard of this thing, the cotton ginn? >> no. >> the cotton ginn separates the seed from the cotton. >> that's an amazing invention. >> how about the steam engine. you are -- one guy said you love edsel's too, that's a hell of an automobile. >> really. i was going to find a way to tweak him. >> i can't believe i'm -- >> this is a nice little segue to another blackberry story. we have some other issues this morning. prem watsa appears to be the key to buying blackberry. his fairfax financial holdings is blackberry's biggest holder. dell is set to hold another shareholder meeting. michael dell is likely to win back his backing for his 24.4 buy back of the company. last-minute intervention from dissidents -- >> no. please. >> carl icahn.
keep sleeping. >> take a look at shares of dell. >> too early. >> that's pretty much where the deal is now. people are expecting it to -- >> this doesn't go through -- you know what, we had so much success with that brady sports story. i'm leaving -- >> business news? >> yeah. if dell doesn't do this, you know, i'm going to -- >> you're going to start writing for deadspin? >> no. >> interviewing -- well, you wouldn't have seen any of it. it was on espn. never mind. a mega bond offering is coming with the brady -- he's that quarterback, this game called football. >> i heard. >> we had all kinds of pickup on that piece. you know why we had it, which is sad, you use the word terd. >> yes. >> and the stupid sports media, tom brady used the word terd. >> and talking about johnny manziel, that caught a lot of attention. >> meanwhile, the jets, i felt so bad for that guy but -- >> for who? the guy who messed it up? >> yeah.
i mean, it was right on the -- just in -- in one foot had just stepped out of bounds when the guy pushed him. he was just trying to, you know -- >> messed up. >> mega -- but that's -- if rex ryan starts crowing. yeah. but you know the one thing is, karma, and just the way things work, that's a good way for smith's first game. >> yeah. >> sanchez, no way. never would have happened. never would have turned out that way. >> he used to be the coach at rutgers. >> i know. i watched that. i recognize him. your other guy got a job. >> yes. >> with soccer or something. former athletic director at rutgers. >> right. he is heading up the new york -- this building league. >> what is going on here? >> connected to the yankees. >> rutgers -- >> it's all this sports stuff. just focus on -- >> a lot of rutgers news. >> don't even bother your pretty little head about it. >> i'm he not going to. >> i know. mega bond offering -- >> i don't think the audience is. >> we had ted bernetti on. >> if anybody knows what the
audience likes, it's you. mega bond offering is coming. they're contemplating bond maturities for sale. $130 billion acquisition of vodafone's 45% stake in verizon wireless. in washington news, "the wall street journal" reports federal officials are preparing to reduce the maximum size of home mortgage loans eligible for backing by fannie and fredie. jumbos are doing fine. they had a lower rate, which is weird. it's designed to wean the mortgage market off government support and allow the market for nongovernment guaranteed mortgages to take a bigger role. critics argue this would shrink the pool of eligible home buyers. that would hurt the hazard recovery as we're definitely going to get tapering. >> although there was some suggestion -- actually, i think it's barry knap is joining us today. that's what i was reading over the weekend. he doesn't think they'll stop or
they'll taker on the mbs. they'll taker -- >> that's what i'm hearing. they're going to taper. >> probably. i would say 10 to 15 billion, right? >> yeah, i would say 10 to 15. >> 10 to 15? >> tapering is coming. >> i saw an argument no tapering. >> who? >> who said that? >> ian shepherdson. >> if you look at -- because i think you looked at the last three months if you look at the jobs that have been added, it was like 40,000 below what it had been leading up to that. >> we're getting none. >> then i checked the "huffington post." the top thing on the "huffington post" is that the fed is going to mess up again that, you know, they have messed up every recovery and if they even think about not putting 85 billion in every month, they're just being really -- not doing what they're supposed to do. >> more on yellen too. it's a whole yellen campaign. >> has she ever been even considered by the obama -- has
anyone inside the white house ever said the word yellen? >> we don't know about the white house. >> 100%. >> i think the white house always -- >> they didn't even vet them. they looked at her. >> sfwhapd. >> they didn't look at her. >> why didn't they? >> by all indications they should have picked her. >> i would argue they're still looking. >> by all indications they should have picked her. >> let's put it off until after syria. >> you're right. they need the republicans a lot now. it's weird. they need the republicans for syria. they need the republicans for summer. that's what i keep saying. >> the republicans may not necessarily look at yellen as a better bet than summers. >> no. they need republicans -- republicans like summers better. >> yeah. >> they need republicans. i'm still hoping he's going to attack the private sector. he is. he's done everything else. he is coming around. he's coming around. he's seeing nsa. we wire tap everyone. we do everything bush did except for -- of course bush runt the
private sector too in certain ways. >> let's talk about a poll of business forecasters apprise that most are maintaining their rosie view predicting 3% growth by the second quarter next year. low inflation and improving employment are also expected. the survey was done by the national survey of business economics. also, gasoline prices rising just in the last two weeks. it reverses four weeks of declines. the main reason is climbing crude oil prices. the lundberg survey puts it at $3.58 a gallon. that doesn't reflect what we're seeing today with wti trading up above $110, that's going to be something that complicates it further if prices stay at these levels. we'll get a check on broader markets. if you've been watching the futures, things are indicated slightly higher. dow futures indicated up 25%. s&p futures up 3 points. oil prices, we're looking
sharply higher over the friday trading session. this morning they're down by 62 cents but sitting right around $110 a barrel. take a look at the ten year note. right now yielding 2.909%. last week we pushed back to 3% and then had a lot of people questioning what the fed would do. friday's job number was weaker than what had been anticipated. also, the dollar this morning is down against the euro at 1.3189. it's up against the yen at 99.46. gold prices with everything else you've been considering have barely budged. it's time for the global markets report. carolyn roth is standing by in london. carolyn, good morning. >> good morning to you, beck ca. exports are up more than 7%. we failed to follow asia higher for a couple of reasons.
stoxx euro is up. a little bit of profit taking. we're coming off of three days for the european markets. we're off the session lows. we trended lower as kerry and his u.k. counterpart hague were speaking. the ftse is off by .4%. the set tra dax is low. modest declines. let's come back to bg group. shares are off by almost 5%. the biggest decliner on the stocks europe 600. this is after the company surprisingly warned about 2014 production. so taking a lot of investors here by surprise. and, finally, quick check of the currency markets for you. where, as you said, the dollar is higher against the yen. up by .4%. below that 100 level, but this
is really about yen weakness on the back of tokyo winning the 2020 olympics bid. this is what we saw in the asian trading this morning. guys, back over to you. all right, carolyn. thank you. we've got markets indicated a little bit higher. do you guys by any chance see that comcast article in behrens? >> no. not for -- >> we don't get behrens now? >> it's not here. i checked this morning. >> it's not here. >> big stack. in the back. you're coming in the front. >> oh, you're a front door person now? >> because the makeup is in 9 front. >> god knows i don't want to see you before that. >> coming up. big piece, 72 by 2015. based on -- mostly on the cable. >> 72? wow. >> wow. >> mostly on the cable prospects because a lot of corporations, no matter what happens with, you
know, it's a high speed internet. businesses. you have to get it some way. also some positive stuff about nbc. coming up, time warner and ibm. the latest two companies to announce changes to retirees health care plans. we'll have a unique view on this. it's happening without obama care. think if we hadn't had to do that. first, squawk sports news in the nbc sunday night football game, six turnovers for the giants as the cowboys beat the other new york team 36-31. in tennis news, there was a time where i thought serena -- this woman aza rerenka had a che to take it. serena is dominant. she's unbelievable. seems like a crummy match, two sets to nothing, but it was closer than it looked for a minute. she blue a 4-1 lead in the second set before taking the last five games of the match.
a top seed. novak djokovic, i was wondering about him. he had to go five sets. he's going to play nadal in today's men's final. >> i felt bad for serena yesterday. >> it went by so quickly. >> announcer: tomorrow on "squawk box", sandy weill. his last squawk appearance sent shock waves through wall street. >> what we should probably do is go and split up investment banking from banking. >> what will the former citigroup box say next? find out tomorrow starting at 7:00 eastern. peace of mind is important when you're running a business. century link provides reliable it services like multi-layered security solution to keep your information safe & secure. century link. your link with what's next.
time now for the executive edge. this is a daily segment focused on giving business leaders a leg up. first up, two well-known companies are making changes to health care plans for their retirees. ibm expects to transfer it to private exchanges. both of the companies plan to allocate money to special accounts for retirees which they can use for purchasing coverage. the moves they say are not meant to lower costs. you can look at the writing on the wall on this. this is part of a corporate trend away from providing traditional retiree health benefits as costs rise and trying to make a way to get fixed costs instead of not knowing where your costs are. >> in competition in the private sector. >> but what i can't figure out from this but i have to assume is that the costs, the burden gets shifted onto the employee. >> yeah.
they're going to have a fixed cost -- >> people are worried about that. if you read it, a lot of the people have already done it and say what they're able to find, because in the private -- >> it's cheaper. >> it's better, too. they're not losing benefits. now the worry is that it's going to be a higher payment down the road for the retirees, but my take on this, if this was going to happen, if this was going to happen, that whole -- >> it has been happening as you pointed out. >> this whole thing, whole process and it's complicated to do it, it was going to work anyway. if we could have found a way to cover the uninsured and to get rid of pre-existing conditions, we could have done such a bipartisan much smaller thing than the affordable care act. it's working anyway. but you see why it's working? these exchanges are private exchanges where a lot of different insurance companies get to bid on the costs. >> the competition -- >> if they don't it becomes challenging. >> it's the competition from having a lot of people bid. >> people are doing it with
their medicare. >> that probably depends on your situation. if you're incredibly sick -- >> the reason why medicare works is it's basically -- >> but we already have it. we've got medicare. and a lot of these -- but if you do it, you can supplement your medicare with a lot of these plans that people use. >> i have to say when i first read the story, when i first heard the headlines, i thought this was an unintended consequence of the obama care. >> no, it was happening anywhere. >> big companies have already done this. >> it would have happened anyway. >> the companies, 66% of the companies did provide for retirees some sort of costs back in 1988 but today it's closer to 25%. >> we'll see how obama care gets in ple implemented. the nightmare we may be looking at in october and 2014, it might have been all for not. it would have happened anyway. >> we'll see. let's talk about the second story. we mentioned this in the last block but some hedge funds are
rolling back their fees because of pressure from disappointed investors. "the wall street journal" reports that the standard charge of 2% of assets under management and 20% of the profits could soon be a thing of the past. they say it's 1.6 and 16%. >> there's two things to this piece. one is if your returns are as lousy as they have been, you deserve this. the other thing is -- >> deserve the 16. >> we always talk about it as 2 and 20. that's sort of the famous phrase, but for most funds that have started in the past five or ten years, the rates have been much lower. they've had to give away half their gp, their general partnership to other people. it's just been a different setup than what i think we're used to thinking about. >> especially when you have the markets rising like 20% a year. how do you keep up with an index fund that's got nowhere near that kind of management and nothing on the profits? >> you know a lot of these guys. i've had some of them -- >> you, too. >> i do. >> i've had some of them say to
me, you know, we did, you know, 11%, 12% last year. the market did 11 and 12. he's only going to make 200 million this year because they've got 10 billion, 12 billion under management. you take the 2%, you do the math on a 10%. does someone that matches the market deserve $200 million? this is your -- right up your alley. >> what's the real question? >> where is the value? >> if they were the hedge fund and if they were to actually hedge their risk such that they were only matching the return of the -- if there's less risk, i would say that's a good thing. >> a lot of them lost a ton of money. >> they lose it, too. >> that's the flip side. >> then they close down. >> if they're matching the index. >> and then they gauge it. >> you think someone -- you think anyone deserves to 2345ik 00 million a year? >> potentially. why not? >> look, i think you better do pretty well. you better have added a lot of value. >> you have to add a lot of
value. not for failure. >> guys, let me tell you about one more story you may have heard of. marissa meyer taking to twitter to rebuff the reports that she has bought the most expensive house in san francisco history. she tweeted back to the reporter and the hifg ton post. i did not buy this house. don't believe everything you read on the internet. reports showed that meyer and her husband bought the house for about $30 billion. owners of other nearby properties include oracle's larry and zynga. >> what does ariana have to say about this? >> that's not my -- >> you didn't have this. you know everything about gossip and high tech. marissa meyer, you didn't like her laying on the couch. >> they described her house. >> i know about it because the story is false. why would i report a false story? >> you knew that she hadn't done -- >> do you know this area? >> i know where this area is? >> have you been -- >> no, i haven't been.
>> you haven't been to larry's house. >> back hood. >> tell me where it is. >> call it a hood. >> is it near the golden gate? >> i was thinking it's probably up by the -- >> not lombard. >> probably up on that hill, that beautiful -- >> with that -- like that structure. >> i'm guessing. what's the neighborhood? >> you see it from anywhere in san francisco? >> coy tower? >> i don't know if it was there. i thought it was more on the ritzier pacific something, that neighborhood. >> yeah. >> when we come back we'll go from economic data to washington's debate. first though as we head to a break, we'll take a look at last week's winners and losers.
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smithfield food getting u.s. approval, kiss your bacon good-bye, by china shuanghui. the deal receiving approval from the u.s. committee on foreign investment. apparently the strategic interests that i saw were not shared by sithius. shuanghui offered to buy smithfield in may. having a blt, the lettuce, the way it's crunchy. >> you'll still be able to get your blt? >> really. we'll see if there's a pork shortage. >> when was the last time you had a blt. >> i love blts. >> i love them, too. >> there was concern by politicians about food safety. we'll see. delta airlines will join the s&p 500 index. it will replace bmc software which is being acquired by bain
capital. my favorite shot here, it's great in the journal. secretary of state john kerry, he's in paris. remember during the election they used to say, you know, he looks french, because he kind of looked classic -- >> the one who picks up the chair. he's in france. he looks it. he spoke over there. he speaks fluent french. i used to like him when he could move the upper half of his face was when i liked him more. now if he does that, it's just going to go -- and just rip straight down his -- have you seen him lately? he has the smoothest from here on up. i mean, all those -- >> don't knock it. we both may have to try it. >> all those deputy dog wrinkles, that hang dog look. none of it but he's like this now, right? you got -- i love working with you. anyway, go ahead. >> all right. let's get a check on the markets and the economy. >> football.
>> joining us on the squawk news line is lou green. and on set with us is dick hoey. vny's -- >> let's see how lou looks. >> you can't see him. we're having a problem with the video. >> dick, weigh in on this. is the jobs number weak enough to give the fed a reason not it taper. what do you think? >> i think it's kind of 51-49 they will go ahead. they've so pre-advertised this thing. why keep the suspense going i? i i think they'll keep the mini taper. second of all, i think there will be a verbal easing with it. there will be descriptions that say taper is not tightening. this doesn't mean we're going to raise the fed funds rate any time soon. >> will it say that we can go back in the opposite direction and add to it? >> i think in order to get the doves on board -- there's not a great idea to initiate tapering and have lots of dissents.
that doesn't give you the intent at the federal reserve. they won't have many dissents. whatever verb by age the doves need to go along with the program, they'll get friendly words, but i do think it's a little more likely that they go ahead and do it than not. >> lou, it has in many ways already been kind of baked into the market and the market is expecting this. do you think that means that that gives them a good enough reason to go ahead with it? >> yeah. i think that would have been a good reason to walk the market back from that expectation if they had an idea that they weren't going to do it. i agree with dick that they'll do it. i think that the september meeting makes a lot of sense to say that as of the october calendar they'll be reduced buying. they have the press conference scheduled after the september meeting. they don't have another one scheduled until after the december meeting and i think the chairman is going to have to go through excruciating detail about we can dial it back up if
we need to, do this. lay it out very clearly. differentiate it from the fed funds move. so i think that they'll take advantage of the logistics of it and at least get the thing going. they've got to start it at some point. they might as well start it this month. >> the one thing i would say is if we hadn't had the strong manufacturing, ism and nonmanufacturing ism, then there would be a higher chance they would taper saying, gee, maybe the economy is really slowing down substantially. if you look at the totality of the economic indicators, sther' re they're really consistent. >> is the economy strong enough to sustain anything they throw our way? >> yeah. because we've already seen the rise in rates from the end of the fed's manipulation through quantitative easing. the beach ball was pressed below the water. as soon as they said we might taper, it came to the surface of the free market. once you get it up to the
surface and everybody says they're not going to be manipulating long bonds, they're going to be backing away from it sooner or later, you've kind of made most of the adjustments. i don't see why taper itself has any market impact at all. on the camp fires around the amazon they're talking about will it be a $10 billion taper or a 15. what's the surprise factor here? >> i guess although, lou, even though we say everybody seems to know this is coming, a market still takes two sides. do you think the market has any reaction if they do go ahead with that plan? >> well, we knew the end of qe 1 was coming and we knew the end of qe 2 was coming and the market had trouble at the end of both of those and, conversely, the 10 year yield fell after the qes -- the first two qes as well. >> what did the stock market do? i can't remember. >> that's? >> what did the stock market do at the end of qe -- >> the stock market fell on cue. there may have been -- there were other issues.
i'm looking at europe. maybe syria is that catalyst as well. it's finally home. a decline as a result of the decline. it will pull the stock market back and other issues could make it fall of its own weight. but -- so i don't think that you can use the argument that, oh, we already discussed this so thoroughly and so, therefore, the market has priced it in because the market didn't price it in during the -- when the qe 1 and qe 2 ended. >> you mentioned the last time we had other things going on including europe. this time we have syria which has seen quite a bit of market attention. >> syria is 20 million people and we've already promised ahead of time. >> it's the middle east. it's the middle east. >> you know, the upward pressure in the oil price is coming from low production in libya, not because of the suez canal. >> $110 though? >> yeah, but there are very
substantial problems in oil supply having nothing whatsoever to do with syria. so i don't know whether or not the president will get approval for his action in syria, but i don't think it's the dominant force in the marketplace. i really don't think it's a powerful force within the marketplace. >> one thing to keep in mind is that the dislocation that's occurred with countries like brazil, india, indonesia, south africa as a result of even the suggestion of taper and there's been a lot of money flows and shifts and now they -- you know, it might be their own current account problem, but we've seen this before. you know, sort of smells of thailand in the late '90s, the sort of thing of a little dislocation can cause a lot of ripples elsewhere. >> that sounds like a broader prediction for more trouble down the road, lou. >> i just think there are some issues so, therefore, i don't think you can say that just because the market is very near its high, which it is, the stock
market, that we've already priced in the end of the qe and, therefore, won't have any trouble. they're not ending qe and this is one of the discussions that, you know, reasons that bernanke will have, you know, excruciating detail in his press conference. they're still buying. they're going to continue to buy. the balance sheet continues to expand. will the market price in the end? >> i think you're dominated by the fundamentals and the fundamental is i think we're did go to have a stronger u.s. global economy in 2014 than weaken now. i think that's much, much more important if we taper in september, december, whether we do 10 or 15 billion. the key is is it a forecast that there will be a faster growth rate in 2014? i think the answer is yes. that's the whole -- that's the core of the fundamental.
>> lou, thank you. i'm sorry for the troubles we have with that camera there. we appreciate both your time this morning. >> thank you very much. coming up, a big week in washington. president obama preparing to address the nation on the situation in syria as congress officially returns from recess to debate the topic. we're going to give you the latest when we return. >> announcer: tomorrow on "squawk box", sandy weill. his last appearance sent shock waves through wall street. >> what we should probably do is go and split up investment banking from banking. >> what will the former citigroup boss say next. find out tomorrow starting at 7:00 eastern. [ male announcer ] these days, a small business can save by sharing.
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welcome back, everyone. in our headlines this morning "the new york times" is reporting neil barofsky has goind the firm johns law firm. he left his post in washington in 2011 to teach at nyu's law school. >> now with the latest on the situation in syria. john kerry taking questions from the media the a a joint news conference with the u.k.'s foreign secretary earlier this morning. >> he could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week, turn it over, all of them. without delay and all low a full and total accounting for that, but he isn't about to do it. >> okay. joining us now to discuss all of this, chief washington
correspondent john harwood and ben white, politico's chief economic correspondent. i'm going to go to you, john, first. handicap. what's going to happen next? >> we'll have a vote in the senate. i think the president will win that vote very narrowly. then they'll count votes in the house of representatives. there's still a significant chance despite huge public opposition that we see in polls that a lot of early negative statements from members of congress that the president could win the house vote. but if he doesn't and the whip count looks very bad, i think it's quite possible that they will say, thank you, united states senate, we've got concurrence from congress and they would go ahead and act and there would be no house vote. >> you think that's a real possibility? >> yes, i do. >> ben, do you think that's a real possibility? >> i think it is a possibility. i think john's right, the senate vote, he could win a it narrowly. that will shift after he's on the networks tomorrow night. but if he does go ahead and take
the senate vote as affirmation and go forward with a strike without approval from the house of representatives, there are going to be a lot of conservative republicans in the house who are going to be really unhappy with that. >> does the assad interview with charlie rose do anything? they're granting this interview at the time that this is being made. he said he knows nothing about nothing. it seemed like a blanket i know nothing. >> sure. i don't think anybody takes that seriously. i think the intelligence is pretty overwhelming over the folks that have seen it. i don't think the fact that he denies it is going to make the case against him or for strikes any less powerful. >> he didn't deny himself he denied his whole precisely. no one will believe what he says. >> john, you talk to people in the white house. are they watching the video of assad? >> of assad? >> yes, the interview. >> i think it's significant he felt the need to step in front of the president and the administration's public rollout.
i agree with ben. there's nobody that's going to look at this. h'm, the u.s. says, this assad said that. how do i decide between the two. >> was he denying that syria even has -- >> he did not deny that they have them. he said he neither denied nor confirmed. >> he basically said he had them, he said we have nothing to do with this. >> members of congress have seen a lot of this in private briefings. they were at the -- the president came to the dinner at biden's house last night with republican senators. i don't think the question is anybody disagrees that assad did this in syria. the question is whether our interests, you know, would support a strike. it's not a question of whether or not there was a chemical attack. >> it raises the question of how limited a strike is going to be. the plans that have been put forward are for a limited strike. apparently the powers that to be are working on a strike. how do you this read the needle? >> that's what he has to do tonight -- in tuesday's address, that it's a very limited strike.
that we have to act to deter the use of chemical weapons going forward by hezbollah or anybody zblels after the embassy closed -- after the warnings about the embassies last week, john, is there any way that you can actually guarantee that some sort of a strike is going to be limited on that front because of whatever retributions will come back? >> there are no guarantees and i think that's at the core of the difficulty of getting people to go along with this because everybody's seen what's happened the last 12 years. people are so tired of war in that part of the world. they're concerned that we're just sliding down that slippery slope. it also doesn't help the president's case that one of his chief republican allies, john mccain along with lindsey graham, are saying, this is a great idea, we just need to make it bigger. >> i still can't get over the idea if the house votes against it -- there's no way to come back to the house a second time? >> there's always a way. they did it in t.a.r.p., you can do it with this.
it's hard to imagine if the house votes down a syrian resolution that they would bring it back. it would be pretty definitive the house is not going to support this. i think it's okay to get a senate vote. we're going to move forward. you'll have conservatives in the house talk about impeachment proceedings. >> andrew, we did see in the do kosovo with president clinton, they got the house and after the strikes had occurred there were votes about defunding, removing american troops that were defeated. you can take a vote like that and say that's tacit authorization, but i think if the whip count looks very bad after the senate vote, you will not see people lay down their cards in the house. >> john, thank you for that. ben, thank you for that. i should also mention that politico made a big deal this morning. did you see it? >> about? >> about the capital in new york. >> making a big move on new york about capital new york. we're going to be covering all
of the insiders in new york. >> are you going to be part of this? >> i'm sure i'll be part of it. i don't have a desk in manhattan. there will be 20 to 24 new reporters. i'm excited. >> you'll still be beltway ben. >> i'm global. i'm world wide. >> congratulations on that. it's an interesting one. the media is watching that. you have those google glasses. >> always. >> you're still doing t aren't you? you have that website. i can see it. coming up -- >> it's so small. is it bigger for you? >> it is. i get full screen. always on politico or now on you. >> yeah, right. japan winning the race to host the 2020 olympic games. that's good. it will help abenomics. the sport will return to competition. the gentleman will come on and take a victory lap. applause from one well-known face to cnbc viewers about wrestling. ♪ [ male announcer ] 1.21 gigawatts. today, that's easy.
has been enacted for the -- >> tokyo won, it's going to host the 2020 olympic games and wrestling is making a comeback. also the spokesman for the committee for the preservation of olympic wrestling. for people that weren't following this, michael, it just seems -- if we do golf or anything, it seems like we'd still do wrestling.
and you made the point, how many countries are involved in wrestling versus other sports? it's got a wide participation, right? what was the problem? it seems political. >> it was quite political, the ioc in essence sent a warning shot against wrestling's vow to modernize the sport and to -- and to listen to the ioc committee quite frankly. and, you know, the wrestling community responded. they changed the head of the international group. we made rule changes. it was kind of metaphoric for wrestling. you get your tail kicked in and you've got to pick yourself up and respond. and so i don't think in essence the ioc really ever wanted to throw wrestling out. when i look back on this, i think this was a very kind of strange way to -- of them to get their way and push the sport in a positive direction. >> so to make it more interesting to watch? >> you know, to make it a little bit more fan friendly.
the group that controlled wrestling, the old group lost touch, quite frankly, with the athletes and the fans. and, you know, they were small changes made, but changes that are pushing the sport in the right direction. a lot of it was around gender parity. we took two of the weight classes away from the men and added them to the women. you're very more gender parity in wrestling than you used to. >> you've made the point in the past, some countries, the only reason they -- the only people they send to the olympics are wrestle wrestlers, right? it's nice to have everyone there. >> 171 different countries have wrestling federations. i think 83 different countries were represented of which 29 won medals. no other sport has that kind of breadth. >> and for a novice, you can see my ears are fine and they haven't been worked on.
what specifically, what were the changes made to make it more fan friendly? >> you know, the biggest change is the way the tie used to get resolved was this crazy system of pulling a ball out of a bag and if you had a -- if you were the wrestler in the red singlet, you got the red ball and a big advantage in breaking the tie. and now it's a much fairer way of ending a match. >> that sounds good. >> yeah, that was a very positive change. it drove every wrestling fan crazy that we were literally ending matches in coin flips. that was a positive. >> did -- i didn't follow it that closely, what else, is there anything else that should have been in that wrestling has taken -- people would say i'd rather have this than wrestling. what didn't make it? >> you know, he had this legacy he wanted of 25 core sports. and so squash, you know, squash didn't get in. i look at it -- squash is a fast-growing and great sport, if
you're going to have badminton in the olympics, why not squash? my guess they're going to expand the number of sports. no reason to stop at 25. >> what's the weirdest sport in there right now? >> you know, have you ever seen a walking race? >> yeah. got to be careful your heel and toe aren't up at the same time. >> how many walkers do you know? we think there are 30 million wrestlers on the planet, i don't know a walker. >> i see a lot of my peers at the mall walking in the winter. >> your peers. >> come on. >> do you know with squash that if it hits the line, it's out. that i'll bet you didn't know unlike tennis. you hit the line in tennis, it's in. >> yeah. >> that should've gone -- we've got to go. michael, thanks. take care. when we come back, we go
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross-sorkin. so far, modest advances. those futures up by about 16 points for the dow, the s&p up about two points. in our headlines, president obama accelerating his push for a military strike in syria ahead of a congressional vote. he will do multiple broadcast interviews today and address the nation tomorrow night. .
we'll have much more on syria in a few minutes. also, economists are keeping their view on the u.s. economic growth. they expect it to expand to a 3% rate by the second quarter of next year. the latest survey by the national association for business economics says that low inflation and an improving labor market will help boost economic growth. and neiman marcus is reportedly in talks to be bought for more than $6 billion. the potential buyers are asset manager and the canada pension plan investment board. currently owned by cpg capital. >> neiman should ask for $12 billion. if the going rate is $6 billion, because it's neiman marcus. it should be a needless park-up. it should be 12 -- >> they bought it for $5.1 billion, that's a mark-up of what? about $1 billion. >> maybe it was worth $2 billion and they bought it for $5 billion. it's got to be needlessly marked
up. >> do you shop at neiman? >> i went in to get some tie things, you know, these little things. it's like $80. it went next door at blumiblumi, it was $15. the jobs report likely to be echoed in today's trading. the latest outlook from top economist for the fed and growth. >> this is interesting, andrew. >> is it really that interesting? really? >> ladies and gentlemen, it's monday morning and such is my lot in life that i come in on a gentle monday morning. >> let me pay attention to what you're saying. >> my saying this is interesting. you see that. >> i perk up normally. >> i would hope anything you bring us would be -- >> interesting. >> yeah, right. >> just say the interesting part. having cleared my throat for the
last minute and a half, i'll proceed with what i think will be interesting which is the dismal scientists, the economists are not as dismal as the rest of the street. and economists did not see it as negatively as the rest of the street. they down played it in favor of other jobs data and think it keeps the fed on track to taper in september. here's some of the commentary about which i spoke. the weight of the evidence supports tapering. who is that from? that's from hfe, i think, and strongly imply that there has been no let-up in the underlying trend in job growth. the august employment report will have a bigger impact on how the fed talked about the policy outlook and on what the fed actually does this month. we couldn't to expect the fed to announce a $10 billion next wednesday. probably split evenly between nbs and treasuries. finally at jpmorgan, the forecast for the third quarter is still at 2.5% with weak july data and much stronger august
indicators. data looks sufficiently strong for the fed to start to taper. they forecast $15 billion, labor market results do not point to any abrupt slowdown in growth, which is what you would have heard. this is our survey released on friday. here's what you see. what you see is that we had 50 people respond, economists, strategists, fund managers, 48% previously said september was the month to taper. and went from 19 billion to 13 billion. >> how do you get 43% if you ask 50 people. >> 43% of those people. >> wouldn't you get an even percentage? >> it's probably rounded up. go ahead. because i figured out -- >> becky, when it starts to come from you too. >> i figured 48 would be 24 people and then i was trying to -- >> you probably round it up. get to the exact data -- >> did you come up with the commentary? >> i did.
>> you don't like that? >> it's like refudiate. >> no, i want to -- write down all your complaints. >> i want to ask you because you've changed my mind repeatedly on this. where do you come down? >> i think it's the most likely thing. what will happen is the fed will -- it's commentary on what it does will be dictated by the data rather than the fact that will it go or won't it. i think that binary choice, they're done with that. they're going to do something here and it's going to be ten. but then they can say stuff like we've done 10 and we're going to stay at this level for a while. or they could even -- i don't think this is true, but some guys think they're going to be out there, lower the target rate for unemployment from 6 1/2 to 6. my point is they'll put like an aspirin -- you know what i'm saying. >> this is bernanke's time where
he's going to be taking questions afterwards. >> i think that's right. i think that's right. i think as i said before, i believe this is a product of an agreement on the board between hawks and doves. i think it is quote, unquote the plan and very little to dissuade them from this purpose. >> okay. all right. i'm with you, then. i agree with that. >> that's what i think. i hope can i stay there. but the point is they're saying there's this jobs data over here and we like this data better than this current one. >> ism, yeah. >> to end with the interesting part, go ahead, give it to me. give me the interesting part. >> the interesting part was what i started with, joe. yeah, that was as good as i could do. >> no, that was good. from the two year to the five-year anniversary of the collapse of lehman. fresh out of treasury, six days to be exact, former deputy treasury secretary under president obama. mr. secretary, i've got to call you mr. secretary. >> no, not anymore. >> but he was.
>> don't you get it forever. when we see tim geithner, we say, mr. secretary. and you were the man. >> you can call me whatever you want. >> i'm going to approach this from a different way since we're all talking about syria and you made comments about syria. i want to make it -- since you're a treasury official. i want to look at it in the -- from the viewpoint of we've got these budget things coming up. isn't it october some things are happening? >> we do. if the funding runs out at the end of september and we're about to come upon another impasse with respect to the debt limit. >> all right. i'm going to -- depending on what happens in syria, we're going to see the president talk tomorrow and how long the process is going to take with the senate and the house and then the actual operation itself. if we do, if we do, you know, go forward with it. i'm hoping that isaiah 17 isn't a reason to worry about syria. >> i can't believe you said that. >> there are people who point to biblical references to the end of the world starting in damascus, starting with the ruin
of damascus and people are -- >> the government is thinking about that. it's planning, it's part of the calculation. >> let's say that doesn't happen -- people love -- you'd much rather have co2 be the end of the world, but let's say this is not the end of the world. is it good our mind is -- and that the media's mind is being taken off the budget stuff? or is it a distraction that will make it harder to get something done because of syria? >> i don't know about the media, but i think congress while they're doing syria is going to be forced to multitask here. they need to focus on the budget. >> maybe that's good. >> and they need to increase the debt limit because it is unthinkable, it seems to me. and it has been unthinkable for the history of the united states to not put the government in place where it can pay the bills it has already incurred. >> if the president needs the republicans, then do they feel like if they give them that, they can take a harder line with the negotiations for the budget? >> i don't think so, joe.
and there's no alternative but for congress to increase the debt limit, to make sure that we are money good -- >> and then we have the budget after that, right? >> the budget before that. look, on that, what we have right now is a sequester that makes no sense at all. it's an across the board slash to government funding without regard to what funding makes sense and is good and should be looked at to -- >> i've seen the president bragging about the lowest deficit in years. he gets to brag about it but then we've got to make sure we get rid of it. >> they're projected to come down. the sequester's got something to do with it. >> we should be careful about the timing here. we do not snuff off growth as our economy is starting to build by unnecessarily decreasing government spending in areas where it is important. not just for the near term to spend money, infrastructure, education. >> most people say we've barely
noticed. >> the independent congressional budget office estimated this sequester cost 750,000 this year and if it continues in place, another 900,000 jobs next year, that's a big, big problem. >> now that you're still here, sequester a big deal? >> about half of the cbo estimate has shown up. and there is still a question as to whether or not you're going to see more in the fourth quarter. when you read, for example, the beige book, the defense contractors were split between -- that were, you know -- >> you read the beige book. >> when i read the beige book, which was interesting i thought at the time. >> equally as interesting as your report. >> exactly. defense contractors had seen cuts and would reduce their production. but others expected it in the fourth quarter. there's still more to come. i talked to guys, joe, who were in like, they do nih funded studies. and they're coming to the end of their funding. >> i was going to say, i know a lot of places. not just nih, but some of the
charitable areas and other places that rely on transportation funding. >> one guy a neighbor of mine says it's a disaster because we've done this across the board cut. he also said that when they get to the end of their funding, they're probably going to have to lay off people. so that's a sequester effect that hasn't shown up just yet. you see it in the data, joe, but don't see it as dramatically as had been estimated by the cbo that may be tk, as we say -- >> you've good the administration line on syria. we need to do this, right? >> we do need to do it. the idea this dictator can use his chemicals on his own people, not only a bad idea with respect to assad in syria, but other dictators now and to come who need to understand that the world's judgment -- and if this is a judgment the world made long ago about the ability to
use these weapons. >> can you see how a dictator would think it's arbitrary. the difference between american bombs or someone's bombs and the difference between chemical weapons. do you think the guy in north korea, do you think he thinks there's a difference between chemical weapons and a small nuclear device in terms of how dead the people are? >> the world made the judgment and i think absolutely correctly that using these is a line that should not be crossed. and when people do use them, it's been few times in the -- >> there are atrocities we're not going to try to rectify. >> i'm not excusing those atrocitie atrocities. but this is one where -- >> but you see how the average american might say, boy, things in north korea, here, in iran, we can't police the world. >> there's lots of countries policing the world and we are one of them. and we have a responsibility to make sure those kinds of moral imperatives are pursued. >> do you think we should
respond because the president drew a line in the sand saying there's a red line meaning we're boxed into a situation now we have to go? >> no. >> you would have made this argument irrespective of what the president said? >> i think you have the cause and effect backwards. meaning, the activity that assad did, that's what demands a response and not because what the president said a year ago. >> what if congress doesn't go along with it? >> well, i think the congress will go along with it. i don't think it's worth spending a lot of time on the counter hypothetical. i think they will and i think the president will get his votes. >> lawmakers, 340 are undecided, 44 in favor, 144 imposed. >> the president's working this very hard. obviously giving a speech tomorrow on national television. he's been meeting with senators meeting with them last night. i think he's laying out the case clearly. >> we want a response but not too much of a response. we want to punish him but don't want to sway it either way. it's such a weird idea that -- i
mean, regime change is something that we could get behind because this guy's used chemical weapons. we need regime. instead of saying, oh, we wouldn't want to swing it one way or the other. >> we're involved as a government in supporting the opposition of syria in the right ways. the president's clear on this. he's not interested in committing troops on the ground. a limited response to atrocities. >> and what happens if he responds again? >> who he? >> assad. >> we'll take it from there. assad did something unconscionab unconscionable. the president has laid out an argument for why that should be responded to. and we'll see what happens. i think assad will get the message. >> right. >> take politics out of it. what is the economic impact? >> i think it's very hard to know, andrew. i assume you guys have game theoried this all out. >> there's lots of different scenarios and permutations. i think it's hard enough. to some extent, it'll increase
risk in a range of ways. depends when and what the responses are. i think in the scheme of global macro risks, i wouldn't necessarily isolate this as a game changer. >> if he prevails, we're okay with him staying? >> the president's been clear he needs to go. >> he needs to go? >> he does. >> okay. >> and we're supporting along with international -- >> you can see we have a hard time figuring this out. >> we're not going to commit u.s. troops to the ground to see he goes -- >> we're not going as far as mccain and others would like. >> well, we're doing a range of things that we think is the right balance, the president thinks is the right balance in getting support to the opposition. this issue about a missile strike, the kinds of things the president laid out is a separate point that's really about responding to a human atrocity. >> okay. neil's going to be sticking around. >> we have a lot to talk -- the financial crisis, dodd/frank.
neil was theneal was there in t hot seat for most of the time except for the crisis. you got there in may. >> i wasn't in the fall of '08 at the very beginning but from may 0i'09, i was there. >> we're going to go through this. we are going to get the latest on what's next in the white house when it comes to syria. neal gave us a little bit of that. and later, we'll dig beneath the financial crisis. a closer look at how the events of 2008 impacted our economy. we'll be speaking to peter fisher of blackrock about that film. "squawk box" coming right back. man: sometimes it's like we're still in college. but with a mortgage. and the furniture's a lot nicer. and suddenly, the most important person in my life is someone i haven't even met yet.
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